New Nanos poll: NDP voters switching to the Liberals?
We didn't have a lot of polls so far during this campaign, but it seems things are about to change with Nanos rolling their...
March 31, 2011
March 30, 2011
Atlantic Canada: the source of the majority for the Conservatives?
30 March 2011
Everyone pretty much assumes that the Conservatives have to make big gains in Ontario if they want their majority. Indeed, Quebec seems like a dead end for this party and Harper will likely settle for 9-11 MPs there. As for the Prairies, Alberta and BC, the Tories have pretty much maxed out over there....
March 30, 2011
The useless move
30 March 2011
The ex-NDP candidate in Elgin-Middlesex-London really didn't help his party. He decided to pull out of the race because he's affraid of a Conservatives majority and would thus prefer not having the NDP/LPC vote split. He backed up the Liberals.It's kind of funny because this is exactly the kind of...
March 30, 2011
New domain name
30 March 2011
I've decided to make this website look a little bit more professional by buying an actual domain name, instead of using the .blogspot.com. This one will naturally still works, but from now on, the official address of this website is: www.tooclosetocall.caThanks for sharing the good news ;...
March 30, 2011
Can the Conservatives lose one more seat in Alberta?
30 March 2011
The Conservatives are looking for a majority obviously, but they are also looking to sweep Alberta, like in 2006. We talk a lot about the currently only non-CPC riding: Edmonton-Strathcona, hold by the NDP. This party won this riding by a slim 463 votes in 2008. How did this happen?Well, beyond the...
March 29, 2011
Can Larry Smith win his riding?
29 March 2011
It seems to be a question a lot of people are asking, whether on this site or elsewhere. The Conservatives were very happy to recruit this high profile candidate in order to get more votes in Montreal West, a region that is Liberal to death. But can Larry Smith really win the riding of Lac-Saint-Louis?...
March 28, 2011
New Abacus poll: finally some good news for the Liberals
28 March 2011
The Liberals are having a somewhat good start of the campaign, with the 1000-persons rally yesterday in Montreal. Of course, you could argue that the Conservatives are currently winning because they managed to focus everyone on the word coalition instead of talking about the wording of the non-confidence...
March 28, 2011
Update on the motivations of May to run in BC
28 March 2011
When I estimated the "May effect", i.e: the boost that the leader of the Green party can expect when running in a given riding, I said that I didn't understand why she choose the riding of Saanich-Gulf-Island in BC instead of Guelph in Ontario.Well when reading this article (in french), it seems that...
March 26, 2011
Day 1 (March 26th): Conservatives start with a majority
26 March 2011
The election is officially started and we've got a couple of new polls (AR, Léger, Ipsos). They all show a big lead for...
March 25, 2011
Estimating the Elizabeth May effect
25 March 2011
Elizabeth May is a puzzle for me. In 2008, she had an unique deal with Stephane Dion in that he agreed not to run any liberal candidate versus her. Yet, where did she decide to run? In the riding of Peter McKay! While she did get a pretty decent score of 32%, it wasn't enough to win and quite honestly,...
March 25, 2011
Can we predict individual ridings using the provincial swing?
25 March 2011
Ok so here we are, in election! I know most people are not happy about that, but I'm sure that most of my readers are, as any political junkie. Today, I'll not post new projections based on one or two polls. Instead, I would like to justify a little bit my model and why I think it is valid. Of course,...
March 24, 2011
Scenario of a coalition PRE-election
24 March 2011
The election isn't officially started yet, but we're already talking about a possible coalition between the LPC and NDP (and, to a lesser extent, the Bloc). This post is not intended to promote such coalition. Nor do I want to argue whether such coalition is legitimate or a good idea. My objective...
March 24, 2011
(Almost) first day day of the campaign: game over already?
24 March 2011
I know we are not officially in election right now, but everybody knows we actually are. So we have our first poll, conducted...
March 23, 2011
20 ridings to watch according to the National Post: comparisons with the projections
23 March 2011
The NP lists 20 ridings where the action will likely take place during this election. This is very interesting but it is based on the results of the last election, and not the CURRENT situation. Using the latest federal proejctions, let's see if those 20 ridings are really that interesting.Vancouver...
March 23, 2011
Let's the fun begin!
23 March 2011
So it's almost official: we are in election! The only question remaining seems to be whether the 41st federal election will start tomorrow (with a vote on the budget, well an amendment to it) or on Friday (with the vote on the non-confidence motion of the Liberals). I'm pretty sure the Tories would...
March 21, 2011
The situation before the budget: latest Nanos poll [Update]
21 March 2011
The federal budget will be presented tomorrow and almost evryone expects the government to be taken down by the opposition...
March 14, 2011
Sondage Légermarketing 14 Mars: projections provinciales
14 March 2011
Note: while this blog is mainly written in english, I've decided that posts related to Quebec's politics will be written...
March 13, 2011
New poll from LegerMarketing, 14th March 2011
13 March 2011
We are getting really close to the federal budget and the polls keep coming. And they keep showing a huge lead for the...
March 10, 2011
Second choices: what if?
10 March 2011
In its latest poll, Ekos asked the second choices, as well as asking who they voted for in 2008. I always find those questions...
March 10, 2011
New Angus-Reid and Ekos polls
10 March 2011
We just got two new polls, from Angus-Reid and Ekos. The latter shows a little fall back for the Tories, while the former...
March 05, 2011
As requested: comparisons with 308
05 March 2011
Here is a comparison with 308. I used his numbers and inputed them in my model. You can compare these results to 308's...
March 05, 2011
New projections
05 March 2011
Here are the latest projections using an average of all the recent polls. Since most of them gave the Conservatives a big lead, the new seat projections are naturally more favourable to the Tories. They are getting very close to a majority. You can see the details here.By the way, I'm glad to see that...
