A new poll from Ipsos-Reid was released today (and thus the interviews were made before the court decision regarding the electoral spendings of the Tories). The Conservatives are standing at 43%! The Liberals are at 27% and the NDP at 13%. In Quebec, the Bloc would enjoy a level of support of 41%.
Translated into seats, that would give the Tories as many as 169 seats, including 151 safe! Only 54 for the Liberals and 29 for the NDP. The Bloc would get 53 MPs and fall one short to be the official opposition for the second time in history. But be very carefull with this poll, as some of the regional breakdowns seem very odd, to say the least. For instance, the Tories are at 52% (!!!) in Atlantic. This is far above the huge poll from Angus-Reid released yesterday. Also, in Quebec, the Liberals are a lot higher than usual, and the NDP a lot lower. Small sample size is probably the issue here.
In any case, here are the riding-by-riding projections. For regular readers, since the poll show the Tories and the NDP so far from previous levels of support in Atlantic, I used a simple linear model for this region. Again, my model is not meant to be used for extrapolations as big as that.
I'll update the general projections using an average of all recent polls later this week (I'm expecting a new Ekos poll). But just so that you know, even the projections using an average start showing a Conservative Majority. Do you smell elections?
Translated into seats, that would give the Tories as many as 169 seats, including 151 safe! Only 54 for the Liberals and 29 for the NDP. The Bloc would get 53 MPs and fall one short to be the official opposition for the second time in history. But be very carefull with this poll, as some of the regional breakdowns seem very odd, to say the least. For instance, the Tories are at 52% (!!!) in Atlantic. This is far above the huge poll from Angus-Reid released yesterday. Also, in Quebec, the Liberals are a lot higher than usual, and the NDP a lot lower. Small sample size is probably the issue here.
In any case, here are the riding-by-riding projections. For regular readers, since the poll show the Tories and the NDP so far from previous levels of support in Atlantic, I used a simple linear model for this region. Again, my model is not meant to be used for extrapolations as big as that.
I'll update the general projections using an average of all recent polls later this week (I'm expecting a new Ekos poll). But just so that you know, even the projections using an average start showing a Conservative Majority. Do you smell elections?
