NDP voters without commitment?
Some people argued that the NDP will suffer the same fate as the Lib-Demm in the last UK elections. In particular, because...
April 30, 2011
April 29, 2011
My article today in the NP: strategic voting
29 April 2011
Today, I wrote about how strategic voting is useless in my opinion. It can matter in maybe 2-3 ridings, but that's it. For the other ones, you would need like 40% of the voters to do the same and this is very unrealistic. This is my opinion though, I know some of the commenters here strongly believe...
April 29, 2011
Note about Ontario
29 April 2011
Some readers yesterday rightfully pointed out the weird projections in Guelph where the model has the NDP closely winning against the Tories. While I acknowledge the fact it would require a major swing for the NDP to win this riding, I have to mention one technicality about the model.In Ontario, my...
April 29, 2011
Quelques commentaires sur les sondages CROP dans la région de Québec
29 April 2011
Note to my English readers: since I firmly believe in a bilingual Canada and since this post is about Quebec, I decided to write it in french. You can use Google translate if you really have to, or better, try to read it anyway. Posts in french will remain the exception.Nous avons droit à huit sondages...
April 28, 2011
April 28th: new projections show NDP as official opposition
28 April 2011
Harris-Decima finally released a new poll. They were pretty much the only pollster which didn't publish a poll since the...
April 27, 2011
Polls in two ridings in Quebec: good news for the model (and the NDP)
27 April 2011
A friend of mine just let me know about these two polls conducted in the ridings of Lévis-Bellechasse and Lotbinière-Chute-de-la-Chaudière. They both show the NDP rising but still 2nd or 3rd. However, the polls were conducted between April 12th and 17th, so before the main surge.So in order to see...
April 27, 2011
Why I think the NDP's surge is real
27 April 2011
Today, we've got a new poll from Forum Research. With a sample size of more than 3000 (I'm starting to really like all these polls with large samples), they show... that the Tories only have a 3-points lead over the NDP nationally! Completely crazy but kind of consistent with the last polls from Ekos...
April 27, 2011
Elizabeth May leading in her riding?
27 April 2011
A short post where I thought I would let you know of this poll conducted in the riding of Saanish-Gulf Islands where Elizabeth May is running. She is projected to lead 45% to 38%, Howeber, this is a poll with only 398 respondents and conducted by a firm that I never heard of. If you apply the margins...
April 27, 2011
Making seat projections when a surge is occuring
27 April 2011
As a polls and political junkie, I'm of course very excited by the recent turn of events we've seen during this campaign....
April 26, 2011
April 26th: NDP rising, Tories stable (surprisingly)
26 April 2011
These are probably my last projections until the final ones, which should be published Saturday or Sunday. The big story...
April 25, 2011
Et si le Parti Libéral n'existait pas?
25 April 2011
Note to my English readers: since I firmly believe in a bilingual Canada and since this post is (mostly) about Quebec, I decided to write it in french. You can use Google translate if you really have to, or better, try to read it anyway. Posts in french will remain the exception.J'avais écrit ce billet...
April 25, 2011
Tomorrow on this blog
25 April 2011
I'm a little bit busy today preparing the class I'll have to teach starting May 8th, but I just wanted to let you know of two posts coming tomorrow.The first one is the simulation "What if the Liberals Party didn't exist?", a scenario not that fictional looking at the possible epic collapse this party...
April 25, 2011
Should the NDP support Alternative vote?
25 April 2011
In the UK, the Lib-Dem agreed to enter a formal coalition with the Conservatives. One of the conditions was to hold a referendum on a reform of the electoral system. Namely, the switch from the current first-past-the-post (that we also have in Canada) to the alternative vote, also known as instant...
