A friend of mine just let me know about these two polls conducted in the ridings of Lévis-Bellechasse and Lotbinière-Chute-de-la-Chaudière. They both show the NDP rising but still 2nd or 3rd. However, the polls were conducted between April 12th and 17th, so before the main surge.
So in order to see if my model was correct, we need to compare the projections made with polls released during the same period. I found back the pdf for the projection of April 20th. The provincial percentages were:
CPC: 19.9%
LPC: 19%
NDP: 22.1%
Bloc: 33.8%
Using these, here are the projections for the two ridings.
| Lévis-Bellechasse | ||
| Poll | Proj | |
| CPC | 37.7% | 45.5% |
| LPC | 5.9% | 8.5% |
| NDP | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| Green | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Bloc | 25.5% | 20.8% |
| Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | ||
| Poll | Proj | |
| CPC | 35.4% | 46.9% |
| LPC | 11.5% | 5.9% |
| NDP | 23.3% | 24.7% |
| Green | 1.1% | 2.8% |
| Bloc | 28.7% | 19.8% |
The Bloc was a little bit underestimated for the second riding, but overall I'm pretty satisfied (especially since the margins of errors are big for these two polls) The NDP was spot on in particular!
Bloc supporters shouldn't be too happy though, as I've said, these polls and projections were valid for before the big surge. If you look at the current projections, you see the Bloc in third and way behind.
