I thought of something tonight: since the NDP is rising in Quebec and clearly getting votes from the Bloc, then we should see something happening among the remaining Bloc voters regarding their second choice, no? I mean, if you look at this Ekos poll from early April (when the NDP was at only 18% and the Bloc at 33%), you see that 42% of Bloc voters have the NDP as second choice. Fast forward to this poll, released yesterday. You still have 40.1% of Bloquistes stating the NDP as their second choice. How do you explain that? Isn't it likely that the people who switched were more likely to have the NDP as second choice already? Therefore, the remaining Bloc voters should have different second choices than before.
I just thought I would ask some of my regular commenters to see if I'm the only who finds that a little bit odd.
