Ok so Harper won his majority. Why were the predictions wrong?
Well, if you excude the Atlantic where I would have to look more in-depth into it, it's mostly the fact that the Tory vote was underestimated by most polls. This is especially true in Ontario. If you enter the actual percentages in the model, you get results much closer to the actual ones. I understand this is a lame excuse but it at least shows that the conversion % to seats wasn't that wrong. And it also shows that it's important to provide a simulator like I do. It allows people to use the percentages they believe are right (i.e: correcting the polls).
As for the predictions, I was the hardest model on the Bloc, so yea I guess... For Quebec, surprisingly, except in Gaspésie and a little bit in Montreal (Mostly Mtl-East), the model wasn't that bad for the NDP.
The collapse of the Liberals is way worse than predited in the polls. This is crazy.
I'll look at the details results next week, when I'm back. In the mean time, congratulations to DemocraticSpace who was the only model to predict a majority even though it was a smaller one. On the other hand, DS, was more off than me for the Bloc and NDP.
