I now have improved on the first version of the BC model. In particular, I now have some regional coefficients for the BC Conservatives as well. To achieve so, I looked at the 2009 results and observed where the BC Conservatives were higher. Still assuming that they took their votes from the BC Liberals, I managed to come up with some regional variations for the share of votes that the CP will take from the Liberals. In particular, the model now assumes that the Conservatives will take more votes in the interior that they would in Vancouver for instance. It make sense and I'm happy not to have to assume a uniform effect for the Conservative throughout BC.
There was one new poll last week, from Angus-Reid. The NPD is still largely ahead and would win a comfortable majority. However, the BC Liberals gained 3 points. At 29%, they are still far from being competitive, but I'm guessing they will any good news they can get. For the race to really become competitive, the Liberals have to go back above 35%. In order to do so, the first task would likely be to bring the Conservatives down. Even though this party is now polled at only 12%, far below where they were a couple of months ago, it is still a big increase since the 2009 election (where they got 2% of the votes with 24 candidates). An increase made essentially at the expense of the incumbent party. As with my previous projections, I still have no seat for the Conservatives. They are however highly competitive in some part of the interior, in particular in Kelowna.
Fell free to comment and let me know if you see anything that doesn't make sense. The model is still not completed. But it's getting there.
