April 25th 2013: BC projections by the numbers

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April 25th 2013: BC projections by the numbers

25 April 2013

Once in a while, I'll switch from my usually text heavy posts to straight up, pure numbers. This section is therefore called (unoriginally) By the Numbers. Outcome Probability NDP victory 100% NDP majority 100% NDP with 70 seats or more 6.4% NDP...

25 avril 2013: Le potentiel de la CAQ et de QS

25 avril 2013: Le potentiel de la CAQ et de QS

25 April 2013

Léger a publié un nouveau sondage (je cherche le lien, vous pouvez trouver les chiffres sur twitter) montrant une course bien plus serrée que dans le dernier sondage Crop. En utilisant les chiffres du Léger,  le modèle prédit une courte victoire PLQ avec 57 sièges, devant le PQ avec 56. La CAQ...

24 Avril 2013: Philippe Couillard donne des ailes aux PLQ

24 Avril 2013: Philippe Couillard donne des ailes aux PLQ

24 April 2013

Note to English readers looking for the BC projections: just scroll down this post. Un premier (du moins il me...

April 24th 2013: What would it take for a Green candidate to be elected?

April 24th 2013: What would it take for a Green candidate to be elected?

24 April 2013

If my model is relatively kind on the Conservatives (especially when compared to other models), it can seem incredibly hard on the Green party. Indeed, with the latest numbers, I don't project a single Green MLA and even the best case scenario would only see one Green candidate win his/her riding....

21 April 2013: the BC Conservatives and the impact of various projection methods

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21 April 2013: the BC Conservatives and the impact of various projection methods

21 April 2013

The BC Conservatives got 2.1% of the vote in 2009. However, they achieved this by running only 24 candidates. So make no mistake, these 24 candidates got in average way more than only 2.1% (in fact they got 7.4%, with one candidate getting as much as 20%). This time around, they are currently polled...

April 20th 2013: How high can the NDP go?

April 20th 2013: How high can the NDP go?

20 April 2013

If my first campaign post was about the chances of a BC Liberals victory on May 14th (spoiler: right now, the odds are very close, if not exactly, zero), my second is about how manys seats the BC NDP can expect or hope for. Looking at the most recent polls (from Ekos, Angus-Reid or Ipsos), the...

April 17th 2013: The BC election begins. Can the Liberals even win?

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April 17th 2013: The BC election begins. Can the Liberals even win?

17 April 2013

The BC election has officially started yesterday. One long month of (most likely dirty) campaign leading to May 14th....

April 15th 2013: The Trudeau effect?

April 15th 2013: The Trudeau effect?

15 April 2013

The Liberals have a new leader, one that got elected even more easily than expected. Justin Trudeau is currently seen as the savior of the LPC and many hope he will bring this party back to power.Looking at his leadership run and the recent polls, Liberals might indeed be right to have high hopes...