Yesterday, I wrote an article about the vote splitting occurring in this election between the Liberals and the NDP. In English and in French.
The main result was that the Conservatives are currently winning 28 seats thanks to it.
Here is the list of the 28 ridings affected. There are technically 72 ridings where CPC is leading but NDP+LPC would be greater, but in most of them, the lead of the Conservative candidate would not be overcome by having a unique candidate (or coalition) between the other two (namely because not all NDP voters for instance would vote Liberals).
| Central Nova |
| New Brunswick Southwest |
| Saint John-Rothesay |
| Tobique-Mactaquac |
| Jonquière |
| Richmond-Arthabaska |
| Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill |
| Brampton Centre |
| Brampton North |
| Essex |
| Glengarry-Prescott-Russell |
| Kenora |
| Markham--Stouffville |
| Oakville |
| Oshawa |
| Calgary Confederation |
| Edmonton Manning |
| Edmonton Mill Woods |
| Edmonton Riverbend |
| Lethbridge |
| Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam |
| Fleetwood-Port Kells |
| Kamloops-Thompson--Cariboo |
| Kootenay--Columbia |
| Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge |
| South Surrey-White Rock |
| Steveston-Richmond East |
| Nunavut |
In these ridings, if the NDP and Liberals were to run a single candidate, they would likely win. 28 out of 338 isn't that much, but it does currently make the difference between Harper finishing first and third.
