This morning we got a new poll, from Forum. I have nothing against this firm as it has done fairly well in the past, but the new poll lacks credibility.
Why? Forum still includes the BC Conservatives as a choice in their polls. And according to Forum, this party is at 7% province-wide!
Now, let's be clear, the BC Cons have a grand total of 10 candidates, 10! Let's do some math.
Using 2013 as a baseline, there were 1.8 mio votes. Getting 7% of that means getting around 125k votes. It means an average of 12.5k per riding.
Now, the average total number of votes in a given riding was a little over 21,000 in 2013.
It means that in average, the BC Conservative would get almost 60% of the vote in each riding they are competing!
In other words, if the Forum poll is true, expect 10 BC Cons MLAs next Tuesday.
I'm not including this poll in my average. If the BC NDP is really ahead of the Liberals, then another firm doing IVR polling will show it. But Forum, get your things together, including the BC Conservatives makes you lose all credibility. It's like you just looked at the results last time around on WIkipedia and decided to poll the province.
