Since it seems that we'll somehow end up with a fall election in BC, in the middle of the second wave of a pandemic, here are the simulators for this election. Yes, simulators, plural. There is the simple version where you only need to enter the provincial numbers. Then the model takes care of everything. The version 1.0 is very basic and doesn't have regional adjustments or anything (mostly because of a lack of polls).
If you feel more adventurous, there is the more advanced version where you enter the percentages by region. It's harder to use -- not least because we currently have a clear lack of polls with full regional breakdown -- but it has great benefits.
I'll update those simulators during the campaign. I don't currently have projections myself, mostly because of a lack of good polls. Not only do we have few of them, but they aren't from the best firms (which are Mainstreet and Leger). Polls also often have the BC Conservatives at 7-10%, something pretty ridiculous given the state of this party. Hopefully that will change soon if we are indeed in campaign mode starting this week.
With that being said, there is a reason why Horgan wants an election: he knows he's hugely favourite to win a majority. Polls have been good and the New Brunswick election last week has shown that a incumbent government can call an early election and not be punished for it -- although the situation wasn't exactly the same to be fair. A simple average of 'recent' polls would put the NDP around 45-48%, the Liberals at 30%, the Green at 12% and BC Conservatives at 7%.
Can the BC Liberals come back? Well, if we assume that the BC Cons are ridiculously overestimated and their votes would go back to the Liberals, it brings them to 35-38%. Can Wilkinson climb back from a 7-10 points deficits? Maybe. This is especially possible given the fact BC elections have very few swing ridings. So it could likely come down to 5-6 ridings, mostly all in the Lower Mainland.
Anyway, enjoy the simulators!
