Now that Elections BC has published the final list of candidates, I have updated the model. It's a lot of work for nothing, in particular with the BC Conservatives party. They ran 10 candidates last time and have 19 this time around. However, they aren't running in the same riding. So I need to make some adjustments.
My data analysis shows that there is usually a stronger relationship between the BC Conservatives votes and the BC Liberals (logical). In 2017 for instance, the Liberals most likely benefitted partially from the drop from 56 BC Cons. candidates to only 10, especially in the Interior. On the other hand, if this party runs a candidate in a riding where it didn't in 2017, I need to 'input' an hypothetical score. I use the regional average for this.
You might think this is useless and you might be right. But while the BC Conservatives ran few candidates, they usually get around 5% in every riding they contest. So they could have an impact in Chilliwack or Boundary-Similkameen for instance.
Anyway, here are the updated projections. You also have the updated basic simulator here. I'll update the regional one soon. Not a lot has changed, it's still a NDP majority unless we get a monumental polling failure. As for the Green, they could keep their 2-3 seats in theory but would require strong incumbency effects and/or a polling failure as well.
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Adjusted polling average; Seat projections with 95% confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats |
