Projections update, September 4th

While it's too early to assess the impact of the French debate of last Thursday -- despite what some might tell you online -- polls have been slightly better for the Liberals in recent days. They have climbed back in Nanos and Mainstreet. It's almost entirely in Quebec. And no, again, this can't be interpreted as the effect of the debate yet. Quebec is weird. Ekos is showing the Liberals dropping and all 4 parties within 11 points while Mainstreet has had the Bloc falling for a few days. Nanos was converging until today where the Liberals went from 32% to 44% in one day, which is absurd.

At the end of the day, updating the projections recently hasn't really changed anything. The Liberals remain favorite thanks to Quebec and a small lead in Ontario. I don't believe my projections will ever show the Conservatives ahead until the Liberals lose the lead either in Quebec (to the Bloc) or to the Tories in Ontario. I'm actually confused by projections from popular sites with the Conservatives ahead. But hey, maybe they are indeed right. Quebec really hasn't moved much since the beginning, which is weird. Ontario has moved but not enough to give the Tories a plurality.

The actual probabilities have barely moved. The seat totals changed because the Liberals are projected to win a few more close races in Quebec, that's all. As I've said, nothing has really changed this week and each update has been fairly useless. We are in a situation where the Conservatives can win, it wouldn't be that unlikely at 35% chances. We also have a fairly low chance of a Liberal majority (15%). Going beyond this is pretty much impossible right now. Anyone pretending they know for sure what would happen is either lying or delusional, or both. Polling error + many close races mean high uncertainty. What would make things a lot clearer is, again, a change of lead in Ontario for the CPC or the Bloc taking the lead in Quebec. Until then, get used to the 65-35 chances of winning for the LPC-CPC.

Anyway, here are the projections. I haven't updated which ridings have a Green candidate, I'll do this this weekend.