I thought that my quasi final projections would actually double as my actual final ones but Elections Canada released some more complete fundraising data yesterday. The number of extra donors is quite significant (Poilievre, for instance, goes from 37,729 single donors to 50,441, mostly thanks to new data going into July). Lewis also increased quite a lot thanks to the July numbers. I have also updated the Google Trends numbers.
I have therefore re-run all my stuff and here it is. You have the projections with the range, the results by provinces as well as the riding-level map. Keep in mind that the map is likely a lot less accurate than the overall numbers. The projections are based on the fundraising (mostly the number of donors but also the amounts), numbers from Google Trends as well as the one Mainstreet poll (which polled the existing members of the party). I also want to the most recent Ipsos poll (of voters, not members) showing Poilievre increasing his lead over Charest.
I have Poilievre winning a majority of points over 99% of the time. He wins 100% of the time as he has way more down ballot support than Charest.
Quite a high chance that Lewis gets more votes but fewer points than Charest. She has a 10% chance of getting more points. It'll be difficult for her as Charest's vote is very likely more efficient thanks to Quebec.
Charest has a 13% chance of winning Quebec. Yes this is low.
Results by provinces (those are percentages of points).
Finally the map. Poilievre wins 322 ridings, Charest 13 (11 in Quebec), Baber 1 (his own), Aitchison 1 (his own) and Lewis 1 (Nunavut but she could win her riding as well). Poilievre wins every province and region by more than 50%. This is really impressive. And those numbers could be higher if I didn't include the Mainstreet poll in my averages (using only the fundraising, I get Poilievre closer to 66% overall).
