After a difficult week for Danielle Smith (multiple controversies and scandals), the recent polls have started to show a shift towards the NDP. The Abacus poll yesterday had the NDP ahead by 11 (!) province-wide while the (for subscribers only) Mainstreet numbers have the UCP ahead overall but trailing significantly in Calgary.
I still have other, older polls in my average (Leger, ThinkHQ, etc) but my projections now show a race that is literally too close to call. Now, let's be clear, polls in Alberta have had a strong tendency to underestimate the PC/UCP, so it's possible Smith is still favored. But I technically do partially account for this by allocating more undecided to the UCP.
I'd like to address the weird result where the NDP is ahead in the seat count but has lower chances of winning. This isn't a mistake. This is because the NDP is currently projected to win 6 out of 8 close races in Calgary. When I run simulations, I have some with the NDP beating its poll numbers while other simulations will have this party below. What is happening here is that if we look at what would happen if the NDP did better than the polls, it doesn't change much. The NDP is already winning basically everything it can. But if the we look at scenarios where the UCP beats the polls, then the UCP swings back to 48-49 seats. So overall, if we account for the uncertainty that exists, the UCP is still slightly favored.
